Prediction of Gabriel Diallo vs James Duckworth at Almaty Open - Almaty 10-15-25

• In terms of second serve points won in the past six months, James Duckworth leads with 49.88%, compared to Gabriel Diallo's 46.27%. Could this be a critical advantage for Duckworth?
• Looking at return game stats, Duckworth again has a slight edge winning 42.34% of his opponent's second serve points versus Diallo’s 39.32%. However, Diallo does better at returning first serves with 23.15%, while Duckworth stands at 21.11%.
• When saving breakpoints, Gabriel Diallo marginally outperforms James Duckworth, saving 55.88% compared to Duckworth's 55.17%.
• Diallo shows a stronger win percentage over the last year with 59.15% (42/29) whereas Duckworth stands at 48.48% (32/34). Does this make Diallo the favorite?
• Gabriel Diallo excels on indoor hard courts with a 67% win rate, whereas James Duckworth is strongest on clay, also winning 67% of those matches.
• On the main tour over the past year, Diallo has a higher win rate of 65.63% compared to Duckworth’s 50%.
• In their direct head-to-head encounters, Gabriel Diallo has a 1-0 record against James Duckworth, winning both sets in their previous match.
• Historically, Gab Diallo has faced tougher competition with an opponent average rank of 79.73, compared to Duckworth’s 215.36.
• In deciding sets, Diallo has a slightly better record, winning 50% compared to Duckworth’s 35% over the last 12 months.

Editorial Prediction (October 13, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze the head-to-head stats and current form of Gabriel Diallo and James Duckworth, several key factors emerge. Diallo has demonstrated a slightly better win record over the past year, indicating consistent form against top-ranked competition.

Performance under pressure is quite similar for both, but Diallo has the upper hand in his breakpoint saving ability. Although Duckworth's second serve and return statistics have been superior recently, Diallo's overall resilience in deciding sets could be crucial.

Their career best surface performances suggest Diallo might have a slight edge if the match takes place on an indoor hard court, where he has excelled. With a previous head-to-head victory, Diallo might carry a psychological advantage into the match.

Considering these factors, Gabriel Diallo appears to be the stronger candidate to win the upcoming match against James Duckworth.